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Market Movement for February 18, provided by Jill Thacker, CMG Financial

2/18/2019

Mortgage rates trended slightly upward last week. Small business optimism declined but remains positive. Job openings surged to a record high and currently exceed individuals classified as unemployed. Both new purchase and refinance mortgage application submissions declined. The consumer price index was unchanged month-over-month, as inflation tapers off. Jobless claims increased but are still at historically low levels. Retail sales declined in December, and January’s data is delayed.
MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING

THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY 
 

  • Amazon cancels planned New York City expansion. Read More >>
  • How Seniors are stalling home sales. Watch Now >>
  • Are Fannie and Freddie stock moves insider trading? Read More >>

  • The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small-business optimism index fell 3.2 points in January to a seasonally adjusted reading of 101.2, the lowest reading in over two years.
  • Job openings reached 7.34 million in December, the highest level since 2000. The figure also exceeds the 6.5 million Americans who were classified as unemployed, showing there are more open positions than workers available. The quit rate was unchanged at 2.6%.
  • The weekly mortgage application survey declined for the week ending 2/8. New purchase application submissions were down 6.0% and refinance application submission were down 0.1% for a composite decrease of 3.7%.
  • The consumer price index was unchanged month-over-month but up 1.6% from January 2018. Core CPI, excluding more volatile food and energy costs, was up 0.2% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year.
  • For the week ending 2/9, initial claims increased to a level of 239,000 and continuing claims increased to 1.77 million. Though both figures are up, the levels remain historically low.
  • The December retail sales report was delayed due to the government shutdown and released this week. Retail sales declined 1.2% month-over-month. Excluding auto sales, the figure was down 1.8% month-over-month, and excluding gas and auto sales it was down 1.4% month-over-month.

The FridayBUZZ for February 15

2/15/2019
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FridayBuzz for February 15, 2019

Market Movement for February 11, provided by Jill Thacker, CMG Financial

2/11/2019

Mortgage rates trended slightly downward this week, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on slowing down on interest rate hikes this year. The senior loan officer survey saw no change in the quality of loans, but weaker demand. Refinance mortgage application submissions increased, and new purchase application submissions declined. Weekly jobless claims continue to come in at historic lows. Consumer credit broke a new threshold.
MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING

THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY 
 

  • Jerome Powell has Stock Market’s back.  Read More>>
  • Americans starting to feel more optimistic about housing market. Read More>>
  • How Seniors are hurting the housing shortage. Read More >>

  • In Q4 of 2018, the quarterly senior loan officer survey found loan officers expected credit standards to tighten for credit cards and jumbo mortgages as well as business loans. Overall, demand for credit was weaker in 2018.
  • New purchase mortgage applications declined 5.0%, but refinance mortgage applications improved 0.3% for a composite decrease of 2.5%.
  • For the week ending 2/2/19, initial jobless claims declined to a seasonally adjusted 234,000 and continuing claims fell to 1.74 million.
  • Total outstanding consumer credit broke the $4 trillion threshold for the first time ever in December. Revolving credit, like monthly credit card debt, increased by 2% month-over-month. Nonrevolving credit, like student loans and auto loans but not mortgage debt, increased by 2.75%.

The FridayBUZZ for February 8

2/8/2019

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Market Movement for February 4, provided by Jill Thacker, CMG Financial

2/4/2019

Markets were closed last Monday in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. As of Friday, 1/25/19, the US government shutdown was suspended for at least three weeks. The government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic indicators, including the new home sales report, for the second month in a row. Existing home sales declined in December, as expected. Both new purchase and refinance mortgage application submissions are down. Home prices have appreciated. Jobless claims continue to hit record lows, except for furloughed federal employees seeking separate federal aid.
MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING

THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY 
 

  • Existing home sales declined in December, down 6.4% month-over-month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units. Based on the current sales pace, it would take 3.7 months to exhaust all available inventory.
  • After a strong start in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey declined for the week ending 1/18. New purchase applications were down 2.0% and refinance applications were down 5.0% for a composite decrease of 2.7%.
  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index tracks changes in the values of homes financed through conventional financing. In November, the FHFA house price index increased 0.4% month-over-month and 5.8% year-over-year, gaining some steam after several slower months.
  • For the week ending 1/19, initial jobless claims fell to a level of 199,000, the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims dropped to a level of 1.71 million. However, as the government shutdown continues, more and more federal workers are expected to apply for unemployment claims, through a separate government program. Federal claims usually come in at under 1,000 claims per week, but since the government shutdown over 40,000 furloughed workers have applied for benefits.
  • The new home sales report was delayed due to the government shutdown.   

The FridayBUZZ for February 1

2/1/2019

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Market Movement for January 28, provided by Jill Thacker, CMG Financial

1/28/2019

Markets were closed last Monday in observance of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day. As of Friday, 1/25/19, the US government shutdown was suspended for at least three weeks. The government shutdown has delayed the release of some economic indicators, including the new home sales report, for the second month in a row. Existing home sales declined in December, as expected. Both new purchase and refinance mortgage application submissions are down. Home prices have appreciated. Jobless claims continue to hit record lows, except for furloughed federal employees seeking separate federal aid.
MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING

THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY 
 

  • Existing home sales declined in December, down 6.4% month-over-month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million units. Based on the current sales pace, it would take 3.7 months to exhaust all available inventory.
  • After a strong start in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey declined for the week ending 1/18. New purchase applications were down 2.0% and refinance applications were down 5.0% for a composite decrease of 2.7%.
  • The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index tracks changes in the values of homes financed through conventional financing. In November, the FHFA house price index increased 0.4% month-over-month and 5.8% year-over-year, gaining some steam after several slower months.
  • For the week ending 1/19, initial jobless claims fell to a level of 199,000, the lowest level since 1969. Continuing claims dropped to a level of 1.71 million. However, as the government shutdown continues, more and more federal workers are expected to apply for unemployment claims, through a separate government program. Federal claims usually come in at under 1,000 claims per week, but since the government shutdown over 40,000 furloughed workers have applied for benefits.
  • The new home sales report was delayed due to the government shutdown.  

The FridayBUZZ for January 25

1/25/2019

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Market Movement for January 21, provided by Jill Thacker, CMG Financial

1/21/2019

The US government is still shutdown, setting the record for the longest government shutdown in US history and delaying the release of some economic indicators. This week, retail sales and housing starts and building permits were each delayed by the shutdown. In other news, mortgage application submissions continue to show strength, with new purchase and refinance applications each increasing. Home builder sentiment has improved. The weekly jobless claims report continues to post historically low numbers.
MORTGAGE RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING

THIS WEEK'S POTENTIAL VOLATILITY 
 

  • No sign of an end to the US partial government shutdown.  Read More>>
  • Home prices cool, but rents are hot.   Read More>>
  • Fed should respond carefully to slower-growth outlook.  Read More >>

  • The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey improved again for the week ending 1/11. New purchase application submissions increased 9.0% and refinance application submissions increased 19.0% for a composite increase of 13.5%.
  • The release of the retail sales report was delayed because of the government shutdown.
  • The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) housing market sentiment index was positive in January, gaining two points to a level of 58. Current sales conditions increased to 63, sales expectations for the next six months are up to 64, and buyer foot traffic improved to 44.
  • For the week ending 1/12, initial jobless claims declined to a level of 213,000. Continuing claims increased to a level of 1.74 million.
  • The release of housing starts and building permits was delayed due to the government shutdown.

The FridayBUZZ for January 18

1/18/2019

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